How do health, social and weather-related factors affect outcomes for people with COVID-19 in intensive care?
Aim of the study
This study will investigate whether information about a person’s health, socioeconomic circumstances and local weather conditions can help predict the risk of death among people with COVID-19 who are admitted to intensive care. The researchers will develop a prediction tool and then test how accurately it performs.
Why is this research needed?
People with COVID-19 can have very different outcomes. Previous research has identified several factors linked with a greater risk of serious illness. These include age, smoking, existing health conditions such as high blood pressure, obesity and diabetes, signs of physical distress on arrival at hospital, and living in a more disadvantaged area.
Existing prediction tools use health and demographic information to estimate the risk of serious outcomes from COVID-19. For example, the 4C score estimates a hospital patient’s risk of death, while QCOVID estimates risks across the general population. However, these tools may not fully account for the possible influence of socioeconomic circumstances and weather conditions.
What will the researchers do?
The researchers will examine whether weather conditions before a person is admitted to intensive care, such as temperature, wind speed and humidity, are associated with their outcome. They will consider this information alongside factors relating to the person’s health and socioeconomic circumstances.
First, the team will use these factors to develop a tool that estimates the risk of death among people with COVID-19 in intensive care. They will then test the tool to find out how accurately it predicts outcomes. If it performs well, the research could improve understanding of the factors linked with outcomes for these patients.
How have patients and the public been involved?
The researcher has involved the University Hospitals Birmingham Clinical Research Ambassador Group from the start of the project. Members have reviewed the study protocol, expressed interest in the research and invited the researcher to discuss the project at their focus group meetings. The group will also help the team communicate the research and share its findings with wider audiences.
How is the study overseen?
The PIONEER Data Trust Committee reviewed the project and gave it unanimous support.
Who is leading the research?
The study is led by Dr Fang Gao, Professor of Anaesthesia, Critical Care and Pain at the University of Birmingham.
